Thursday, October 9, 2008

How should we approach this?

Two years ago, Bush bragged about providing homes to minorities and financing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Ironically, people now have lost their home, and the two companies suffered bankruptcy. I just saw an article that was heartbreaking. A ninety-year-old woman in Ohio shot herself after the police tried to serve her an eviction order over thirty times. And she’s still being treated in the hospital. This is an extremely sad case during the mortgage period. She has been living in the house for thirty-eight years, and should have spent rest of her life in the house peacefully. And now things have overturned. Over last couple weeks, the economic issue has been the focal point of both VP debate and past presidential debate. This argument includes who should be blamed for the mortgage crisis, how presidential candidates could help people out of this predicament and what should be done to prevent such case happening again.

One of the most heated arguments these days is that who should be blame for of the mortgage crisis. Some opine that the gigantic real estate companies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Bank of America caused the mortgage crisis and a series of irrecoverable damages. And actually they did to some extent deceive consumer in purchasing risky investments. We can see here how a house went through all possible buyers and then bought back by Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae's accounting scandal in 2006 also predicted its failure, during which Senator John McCain made a statement to warn Fannie Mae of its risky behavior. In addition, Bank of America was charged for deception in the mortgage crisis and received a fine for eight billions to modify loans. However, there are different opinions too. An Econbrowser believes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were actually under regulation, and it's government’s oversight that leaded to this catastrophe. Since GSE (government sponsored enterprise, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) scrutinize 70% of the loans, how could Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac keep receiving AAA rate if the loans were risky. Finally, there’s another point from Cascade Policy Institute that the crisis was not caused by deregulation because there is no regulation at all in this market. More regulation will only increase the risk. There are people also who back the Democrats and who back Republicans. I found a video about subprime analysis on left, right and center, in which people share different political views gave insightful analysis in the mortgage crisis.

United States is not the only country that experienced fluctuating housing price. Two year ago, Shanghai China experienced the same sudden downturn of real estate price and housing bubble. Housing prices almost tripled between 2006 and 2002. There were speculators, too, who bought an apartment with a small amount of money and then sold it when price increased. And then, in 2006, according to a real estate manager, “the entire industry is scaling back.” But most of people were not affected by the drop off of housing price. The reason of this difference between China and America is the banking system. In China, if one wants to purchase an apartment, the downpayment should be no less than 30% of the housing price. That means if he gives up this apartment, or his downpayment will be wasted. Compared to American’s mortgage industry, China’s may not be as mature. Nonetheless, it was because of government’s strict control that prevented China from such devastating crisis.

Government’s control over the whole industry is significant in preventing the disaster. In the past VP debate, Palin insisted that “there was greed and corruption on Wall Street, and we demand state government strict oversight over entities in charge of our savings.” Biden said “we have overwhelming deregulation on Wall Street.” It was right for both of them to have pointed out the error on Wall Street. However, in deciding what government should do exactly to bail people out of the crisis, Palin ignored the cause of current situation, which was partially due to deregulation. Biden, instead, listed four basic criteria which were powerful and insightful. Now it comes to the presidential debate on Tuesday, as stock index keeps plummeting (Doe Jones had crashed another 508 points that day), economic was the heated topic during the debate. Asked what was the most positive way to bail people out of this economic ruin, candidates gave different proposals. Senator McCain proposed another bailout plan, and as it turned out today, it is another $300 billion dollar bailout. He wants to use this money to buy all the loaned houses and resell to the homebuyer in a lower price. Obama had a totally different proposal—he aimed to cut tax on middle-class citizens, adjust mortgage interest rate and make sure the past $700 billion bailout was being used properly. However, according to Wall Street Journal, McCain’s New Plan failed to “punish” those irresponsible financial institutions. And as is described on Huffington Post, McCain’s plan is a gift to banks from tax payers. It is like after a kid using up all the pocket money, and his parents instantly give him another $100 dollars. He oversimplified the situation. Parents should teach the kid the principle of allocating money instead of spoiling him. Now our government is the parent, it should take on the responsibility to regulate his child instead of clearing up the mess. Besides, McCain’s plan conflicts his previous expense cutting theory.

As the campaign and economic going on at the same time, everything can happen (some even question the demand for bailout). But what I know is we should approach this issue in a most fair and effective way.

6 comments:

gigi said...

I have found this entire housing crisis very skeptical. I don't understand why our government has allowed the problem to get this far. The only thing is that I'm not quite sure if anything they do is going to be effective in the long run. It always seems like we as a nation are spending, spending, and spending more money to get ourselves out of debt. I don't really see how that is going to help us because we cannot continue to take money from taxes. If the situation gets any worse, Americans are not going to have as much money as an income and will not be able to give the government a large chunk of their check or else they will not be able to afford a lifestyle.

Energy4tomorrow said...

I think it is important to look back and see how we got to this place with the mortgage meltdown. I think history provides us with information about how to avoid repeating the same problem. This issue is very personal to me because I am a homeowner who probably benefitted from the first loosening of the regulations back in the 90's that allowed first time homebuyers to purchase a home with less than a 20% downpayment. It used to be that no one got into a home with less than 20% down. It turned out that I was a good risk. I have owned several homes since then, and they were all purchased with less than 20% down. Having said that, the deregulation continued from that point to a much greater degree where people were able to purchase with NOTHING down. In addition, and where I think things went very wrong, the mortgage companies began to offer loans under TERMS that set the homeowners up for failure. These were the interest only or adjustable rate mortgages. So now you had people in homes that they couldn't afford in the first place AND they weren't building any equity to fall back on if times got tough. And indeed timing is everything and times got very tough. People lost jobs AND housing prices began to drop. So now with no equity and a lower home value, people were actually in a more negative position than when they bought.

So it's interesting to ponder, was that first step towards deregulation the catalyst that got us here? OR, would we have been fine if that initial loosening of restrictions stopped there and didn't ever progress to the extreme? The example you provided about China is evidence that perhaps the strict requirement of 30% down helped China avoid the meltdown we are seeing.

One thing for sure is that the American people should be very vigilant in understanding the terms of loans being offered in the future, regardless of government regulation. Thanks for providing an example outside of all the same information we hear in the media on a daily basis. It helps to look beyond our little bubble and get some perspective.

Ivan Kweku said...

By now, the news is out that the United States and in essence, the world is in a state of mild panic over the economic crisis. I find it very interesting that the president allowed and even funded Fannie Mae and Co..During the presidential debates Senator Biden made a comment about how the economic crisis began eight yeaars ago; he implied that the economy was healthy before the current president's term. This blog has poked my interests.

Margaret said...

Thank you for your comment, green girl. The mortgage industry used to be very lucrative, even it's kind of risky. Nobody would expect things will get this bad. So I think that's why government didn't stop this. I feel this is skeptical too. Because when most people were benefiting from mortgage loans, nobody opposed this. But when things collapsed, people started to blame each other. Government should never have let this happen in the first place.

Margaret said...

Thank you for your comment, energy4tomorrow. Americans have long embraced the ideology of "free market" and "deregulation." And I believe free marketing has its positive effect too. That's why America is the country which has one of the strongest economy in the world. But I think there should be a limit too. When things are over the limit, they will grow out of control. That's how our mortgage crisis happened. Government didn't stop the risky loan at its dangerous point because they thought profits outweighed risks. Central government like China has its drawbacks too. When there is too much government intervention, economy cannot fully develop.

So there is a line economic profits and crisis. And our government should be responsible for preventing the industry from crossing the line.

Margaret said...

Thank you for your comment, ivan kweku. No doubt our government did a poor job in overseeing risky loans. Since things already happened, I hope they will come up a good plan to save our economy. We can never afford to experience another crisis.